भारत की आर्थिक वृद्धि दर 2019-20 में बढ़कर 7.5 प्रतिशत रहने का अनुमान: विश्व बैंक

वाशिंगटन। भारत की सकल घरेलू उत्पाद विकास दर 2019-20 में बढ़कर 7.5 प्रतिशत पर पहुंचने का अनुमान है। निवेश खासकर निजी निवेश में मजबूती आने, मांग बेहतर होने तथा निर्यात में सुधार इसकी मुख्य वजह है। यह बात विश्व बैंक ने एक रिपोर्ट में कही है। विश्व बैंक ने दक्षिण एशिया पर रविवार को जारी रिपोर्ट में कहा कि वित्त वर्ष 2018-19 में जीडीपी वृद्धि दर 7.2 प्रतिशत रही। विश्व बैंक और अंतरराष्ट्रीय मुद्राकोष की बैठक से पहले यह रिपोर्ट जारी की गई।रिपोर्ट के अनुसार, पहली तीन तिमाही के आंकड़ों से पता चलता है कि वृद्धि व्यापक रही है। औद्योगिक वृद्धि बढ़कर 7.9 प्रतिशत पर आ गई। सेवा क्षेत्र में जो कमी आई, इसने उसकी भरपाई कर दी। वहीं कृषि क्षेत्र की वृद्धि दर चार प्रतिशत पर मजबूत रही। रिपोर्ट के अनुसार, मांग के संदर्भ में घरेलू खपत वृद्धि के लिए मुख्य कारक बनी हुई है, लेकिन स्थिर पूंजी निर्माण तथा निर्यात दोनों ने बढ़ी हुई दर से वृद्धि में योगदान दियापिछली तिमाही में विभिन्न क्षेत्रों में वृद्धि संतुलित बने रहने की संभावना है। इसमें कहा गया है कि मुद्रास्फीति की स्थिति वित्त वर्ष 2018-19 के दौरान ज्यादातर समय नरम बनी रही। विश्व बैंक ने कहा कि चालू वित्त वर्ष 2019-20 में भारत की सकल घरेलू उत्पाद (जीडीपी) वृद्धि दर मामूली रूप से बढ़कर 7.5 प्रतिशत हो जाने की उम्मीद है। इसके पीछे मुख्य वजह निवेश खासकर निजी निवेश, निर्यात में सुधार, खपत में वृद्धि प्रमुख वजह होगी।रिपोर्ट के मुताबिक, मजबूत वृद्धि तथा खाद्य कीमतों में आने वाले समय में सुधार से मुद्रास्फीति चार प्रतिशत के आसपास जा सकती है। वहीं चालू खाते का घाटा तथा राजकोषीय घाटा दोनों के नरम रहने की संभावना है। विश्वबैंक की रिपोर्ट में कहा गया है, ‘बाह्य मोर्चे पर भारत के निर्यात में सुधार तथा तेल के दाम में नरमी से चालू खाते का घाटा जीडीपी का 1.9 प्रतिशत रहने का अनुमान है। इसमें कहा गया है, ‘आंतरिक मार्चे पर एकीकृत (राज्यों सहित) राजकोषीय घाटा 2019-20 और 2020-21 में घटकर जीडीपी का क्रमश: 6.2 से 6.0 प्रतिशत रह सकता है। केंद्र का घाटा 2019-20 में जीडीपी का 3.4 के स्तर पर बना रह सकता है। समायोजन का जिम्मा राज्यों पर होगा।रिपोर्ट के अनुसार, जुलाई 2018 से खाद्य वस्तुओं के दाम में गिरावट तथा तेल के दाम में नरमी के साथ रुपये की विनिमय दर में तेजी से महंगाई दर में कमी आई है। विश्वबैंक ने कहा कि सकल मुद्रास्फीति (हेडलाइन) फरवरी 2019 में 2.6 प्रतिशत रही और 2018-19 में यह औसतन 3.5 प्रतिशत रही। यह रिजर्व बैंक के चार प्रतिशत के लक्ष्य से कम है। इसके कारण केंद्रीय बैंक ने रीपो दर में कटौती की।

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